growth – Muhasebe News

China’s Exports Keep Declining Due to Weak Global Demand

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 07 Mar 2023 08:09:49 +0000

At the beginning of the year, China’s exports remained in decline, a reflection of the difficulties the world economy presented Beijing in setting ambitious development targets.

The General Administration of Customs announced that exports decreased 6.8 percent between January and February of last year.

The annual decline was lower than the 9.9 percent drop reported in December and better than the 9.4 percent fall predicted by analysts.

Despite the economy being back open, imports experienced a double-digit decline from January to February of 10.2 percent, which was worse than the 7.5 percent drop from December and the anticipated 5.5 percent fall.

As a result, the trade balance was in surplus, coming in at about $117 billion, far exceeding the estimate of $81.8 billion.

For the purpose of avoiding distortions brought on by the Lunar New Year holiday, the customs office typically combines statistics for January and February.

Source: RTT News
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China’s GDP estimate is increased by Moody’s from 4 to 5%

MuhasebeNews — Thu, 02 Mar 2023 08:54:07 +0000

In order to account for a post-reopening rebound in domestic demand, particularly for services, Moody’s Investors Service recently raised its estimate for China’s real GDP growth from 4 percent to 5 percent for both 2023 and 2024.

According to the most recent revision of Moody’s global macro outlook 2023–24, the Chinese government’s move to loosen COVID-19 restrictions will inevitably result in an increase in the nation’s economic activity of 3 percent in 2022. The credit rating agency anticipates that a resurgence in spending will begin this spring, supported by pent-up demand for non-traded services.

The nation’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, is supplying liquidity assistance to the economy as it restarts and to control the real estate market. According to Moody’s, the extent and longevity of the recovery will determine how much more monetary policy relaxation is necessary.

Source: China Daily
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While the Turkish economy grew by 5.6% in 2022, it grew by 3.5% in the last quarter of 2022

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 28 Feb 2023 07:41:51 +0000

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product in Türkiye, Quarter IV: October-December, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 5.6% in 2022

Gross Domestic Product obtained by addition of four quarters with chain linked volume index (2009=100), increased by 5.6% in 2022 compared with the previous year.

Gross domestic product at current prices increased by 107.0% and reached 15 trillion 6 billion 574 million TRY in 2022 compared with the previous year.

Gross Domestic Product per capita was 176 589 TRY in 2022

The gross domestic product per capita was 176 589 TRY and 10 655 US Dollars at current prices in 2022.

Financial and insurance activities increased 21.8% in 2022

When the activities which constitute gross domestic product were analyzed; the value added increased by 21.8% in financial and insurance, 11.7% in services, 9.9% in professional, administrative and support service activities, 8.7% in the information and communication activities, 5.8% in other service activities, 4.8% in public administration, education, human health and social work activities, 4.3% in real estate activities, 3.3% in industry and 0.6% in agriculture respectively. Construction sector decreased by 8.4%.

GDP increased by 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022

First estimation of GDP with chain linked volume index (2009=100) increased by 3.5% compared with the same quarter of previous year in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Seasonally and calendar adjusted GDP with chain linked volume index (2009=100) increased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter

Seasonally and calendar adjusted GDP with chain linked volume index (2009=100) increased by 0.9% compared with previous quarter. Calendar adjusted GDP with chain linked volume index (2009=100) increased by 3.5% compared with the same quarter of the previous year in the fourth quarter of 2022.

GDP reached 4 trillion 800 billion 717 million TRY at current prices in the fourth quarter of 2022

Gross domestic product increased by 106.2% and reached 4 trillion 800 billion 717 million TRY at current prices. GDP realized 262 billion 669 million US Dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Final consumption expenditures of households increased by 19.7% in 2022

Final consumption expenditure of resident households increased by 19.7% in 2022 compared to the previous year’s chain linked volume index. The share of household consumption expenditures in GDP was 57.5%.

Final consumption expenditures of households increased by 16.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022

Final consumption expenditures of resident households increased by 16.1%, government final consumption expenditure increased by 9.0% and gross fixed capital formation increased by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the same quarter of the previous year in the chained linked volume index.

Exports of goods and services increased by 9.1%, imports increased by 7.9% in 2022

Exports of goods and services increased by 9.1%, imports increased by 7.9% compared to the previous year’s chain-volume index in 2022. Exports of goods and services decreased by 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the same quarter of the previous year in the chained linked volume index, imports of goods and services increased by 10.2%.

Compensation of employees increased by 82.7% in 2022

Compensation of employees increased by 82.7% while net operating surplus/mixed income increased by 115.2% in 2022. Compensation of employees and net operating surplus/mixed income are increased by 103.3% and 104.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the same quarter of the previous year, respectively.

The share of compensation of employees in Gross Value Added was 26.5% in 2022

The share of compensation of employees in the Gross Value Added at current prices was 26.5% in 2022 while it was 30.1% in the previous year. The share of net operating surplus/mixed income was 54.5% while it was 52.5% in the previous year.

The next release on this subject will be on May 31, 2023.

Source: TurkStat
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Turkish Economy Grows 21.7 percent in Q2 2021

MuhasebeNews — Fri, 10 Sep 2021 07:45:54 +0000

The robust recovery in the Turkish economy continued at full speed and Turkey’s GDP grew by 21.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, posting its highest-ever expansion since 1999 and ranking second in the world after the UK.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) also revised upwards Turkey’s growth in the first quarter of 2021 to 7.2 percent from 7.0 percent. The data released on September 1 revealed that the GDP at current prices reached USD 188,566 million in the second quarter and the Turkish economy expanded by 0.9 percent on a quarterly basis, showing that it kept its strong growth momentum despite the lockdown in May.

A close analysis of GDP’s activities indicated all the components positively contributed to the economic growth except stock changes. Private and government consumption have contributed to Turkey’s growth by 13.7 and 0.7 ppt., while investment expenses and net exports contributed by 5.4 and 7.0 ppt., respectively.

Source: Republic of Turkey Investment Office
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Turkey’s economy posted a growth rate of 6.7 percent in 2020 Q3

MuhasebeNews — Mon, 07 Dec 2020 12:23:58 +0000

Turkey Posts Largest GDP Growth in the World in Third Quarter

At a time when almost all economies in the world have been staggering under the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak, Turkey managed to handle this period with trivial damage and ended the 3rd quarter of 2020 with a noteworthy performance.

According to the data of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Turkey’s economy posted a growth rate of 6.7 percent in 2020 Q3 and the GDP at current prices reached TRY 1.4 trillion. With this outcome, Turkey ranked first in the world and became the only OECD member country to post a positive growth during this period.

The recovery in the Turkish economy was observed following the normalization steps taken by the government in the third quarter.

Turkey recorded strong GDP growth of 6 percent in the final quarter of 2019

MuhasebeNews — Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:30:33 +0000

Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) announced the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Turkey for the October-December 2019 period. Thanks to a sharp recovery in private consumption and a rise in credit impulse, Turkey recorded a strong GDP growth of 6 percent in the final quarter of 2019, which brought the full year growth up to 0.9 percent.

Accordingly, Turkey’s GDP at current prices has more than tripled since 2002, reaching USD 754 billion in 2019. The Turkish economy grew by an average 5.3 percent annually during the 2003-2019 period.

The strong growth performance of Turkey in the final quarter of 2019 brought the full year growth into positive territory and this trend suggests a strong signal, implying that the Turkish economy is returning to its long-term potential growth track.

Turkey’s New Economy Program, announced last September, targets GDP growth rates of 5 percent in each of the following three years starting from 2020.

Source: Republic of Turkey Investment Office / link: https://www.invest.gov.tr/en/news/news-from-turkey/pages/turkey-recorded-positive-growth-rate-2019.aspx
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

ICI Turkish Export Climate Index Increased to 51,1 in January

MuhasebeNews — Mon, 09 Mar 2020 11:00:55 +0000

According to the news of Istanbul Chamber of Industry, Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index January, the leading indicator measuring the activity conditions of Turkish manufacturing sector on main export markets increased to 51,1 in January. The strongest improvement of the last five months realized in the export clime. Fundamental export markets were observed to experience improvement tendency.

While the growth accelerated in the Europe, the production increase in USA realized in the highest speed since March 2019. Germany which is the biggest market of Turkish manufacturing industry experienced growth for the second month successively. Production in United Kingdom and Italy passed to the growth area.

The January 2020 results of Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Turkish Manufacturing Industry Export Climate Index which measures the activity conditions of Turkish manufacturing industry at main export markets were announced. All figures to be measured above 50,0 which is the threshold in index points out to the recovery while others to be measured under 50,0 point out to the deterioration in export climate.

According to the data announced as independent to seasonal impacts, ICI Turkish Manufacturing Sector Export Climate Index which was recorded as 50,3 in December increased to 51,1 in January. The latest data pointed out to a moderate improvement in the export conditions of Turkish manufacturing sector based on the most distinctive refreshment in export conditions since the last august. The increase pointed out by the index at the beginning of 2020 reflected the improvement trend observed in some fundamental export markets.

Production increase realized in the highest speed in USA

While the growth accelerated in Europe, the demand conditions in the biggest economy of the world continued to gain strength. Growth speed of economic activity throughout USA increased for the third time successively. The production increase in USA realized in the highest speed since March 2019. Germany which is the biggest market of Turkish manufacturing industry experienced growth in January for the second month successively. The expansion in economic activity was recorded on a moderate level however, it gained speed at the end of 2019. Recession which had been experienced for five months in United Kingdom and for two months in Italy ended and production passed to the growth area. Production recorded a moderate increase in Spain and France and this increase lost speed compared to the previous month. The Netherlands became the biggest export market of which production volume decreased in January depending on the moderate decrease in the manufacturing sector.

Saudi Arabia came to the forefront in Middle East

Complicated signals were received from Middle Eastern countries at the beginning of the year. Saudi Arabia where the intense increase maintained its existence in economic activity continued to come to the forefront throughout the region. On the other hand, while the production calmed down in United Arab Emirates, economic activity experienced shrinkage in Egypt, Qatar and Lebanon. India which experienced a distinct improvement in its demand conditions became of the economies which put forward the best performance of January. Production increase was recorded in the highest level of the last seven years in the country. However, the share of India which it has taken out in export market of Turkish manufacturing industry realized under 1 percent. Growth was recorded in other BRIC countries. While the growth accelerated in Russia and Brazil, it maintained its moderate increase tendency in China. PMI index which has been newly created for Kazakhstan constituting the 0,5 percent of Turkish manufacturing export pointed out that the economic activity was receded in the first month of the year.

Source:Istanbul Chamber of Industry / link: http://www.iso.org.tr/news/ici-turksih-export-climate-index-increased-to-511-in-january/
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

OECD upgrades Turkey’s growth amid weak global outlook

MuhasebeNews — Fri, 22 Nov 2019 09:00:37 +0000

OECD upgrades Turkey’s growth amid weak global outlook

According to the news of Daily Sabah, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) trimmed its outlook for the global economy on Thursday, saying the world was headed for its weakest economic growth since the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Urging governments to invest in digital and climate transformation, the OECD said activity had been hobbled by weaker trade and investment in the past two years, as U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leaders continue to be locked in a trade conflict.

The OECD now expects economic activity around the world to expand by 2.9% next year, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from a previous forecast issued in September.

Growth was likely to remain slow, it said, with expansion in 2020-2021 seen at around 3.0%, down from a 3.5% rate projected only a year ago.

This was shaping up to be “the weakest rate since the global financial crisis,” according to OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.

Growth this year was also likely to come in at 2.9%, the OECD said in its November 2019 Economic Outlook.

Meanwhile, the OECD upgraded Turkey’s economic growth projection for 2019 to 0.3%, up from minus 0.3% from the previous one.

Noting that the growth continued to recover in recent months, the report said substantial government stimulus is lifting domestic demand more vigorously than previously anticipated and currency depreciation is supporting exports.

The organization also revised up its forecast for the growth in 2020 to 3% from 1.6%. Turkey’s economy is expected to grow 3.2% in 2021.

“Yet, weak external trade demand, geopolitical uncertainties and impaired private balance sheets are projected to keep GDP growth at around 3%, well below potential growth which itself has weakened and which may decline further due to increased policy-related distortions in the economy,” it said.

It also advised Turkey to make the macroeconomic policy framework simplified and more transparent to rebuild domestic and international confidence.

Source: Daily Sabah / link: https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2019/11/21/oecd-upgrades-turkeys-growth-amid-weak-global-outlook
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

Moody’s rises Turkey’s growth rate forecast

MuhasebeNews — Fri, 15 Nov 2019 08:00:00 +0000

Moody’s rises Turkey’s growth rate forecast

According to the news of Hürriyet Daily News, international credit ratings agency Moody’s on Nov. 14 upgraded Turkey’s economic growth forecast owing to the country’s growth-friendly fiscal policy.

“Turkey’s recovery is stronger than previously expected, but aggressive stimulus and the U.S. sanctions threat pose risk,” Moody’s said.

The global rating agency revised upward its 2019 and 2020 growth estimates to 0.2 percent and 3 percent, respectively while holding its projection for 2021 at 3 percent.

Moody’s also expected the global growth to remain sluggish as large engines of economic activity slow-down toward a lower long-term trend.

“We expect the G-20 economies, which account for more than 80 percent of the global economy, to collectively grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in 2020, the same rate as in 2019,” it noted, adding that it will pick up slightly in 2021 to 2.8 percent.

It estimated the deceleration in the U.S. and China to continue next year.

“Real GDP growth in the U.S. will likely stabilize around its potential, just below 2 percent. For China, we project a steady deceleration as a result of long-term structural factors,” Moody’s said.

The agency expected the growth of the G-20 emerging market countries to increase 4.3 percent in 2019, collectively registering the weakest growth rate since 2009.

It added that the emerging economies will stabilize or even pick up pace next year and in 2021.

“Growth will accelerate only slightly in 2020, at a rate of 4.6 percent, followed by 4.8 percent in 2021,” it said.

Source: Hürriyet Daily News
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OECD reduced economical growth forecast again

MuhasebeNews — Wed, 06 Mar 2019 13:18:45 +0000

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reduced its global economic growth forecast by 3.3% for 2019 and 3.4% for 2020 on its interim Outlook report.

The Outlook was 0.02% higher for 2019 and 0.02% higher for 2020 on OECD’s November report.

OECD stated in the report that “high policy uncertainty, ongoing trade tensions, and further erosion of business and consumer confidence are all contributing to the slowdown.”

It is also indicated that the Brexit uncertainty, trade tensions between the U.S and China and the recession in Italy have an impact on the European economy.

Source: Reuters
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