domestic demand – Muhasebe News

French GDP increased by 0.4% in Q1 2017!

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 10 Oct 2017 08:00:52 +0000

In Q1 2017, GDP in volume terms* rose barely less fast (+0.4%) than in Q4 2016 (+0.5%).

Households’ consumption expenditure stalled (+0.1% after +0.6%). By contrast, total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated sharply (+1.2% after +0.5%).

All in all, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes barely slowed: it brought +0.4 points to GDP growth, after +0.5 points in the previous quarter.

Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively (+0.7 points after −0.2 points).

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy

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Eurozone Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace in Six Years!

MuhasebeNews — Fri, 05 May 2017 14:35:15 +0000

The eurozone manufacturing sector continued to gain momentum at the start of the second quarter. At 56.7 in April, up from 56.2 in March, the final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® rose to a six-year high. The PMI was only a tick below the earlier flash estimate of 56.8.

Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “ Companies are benefitting from the historically weak euro, improved growth in key export markets, rising domestic demand and ongoing central bank stimulus including record-low interest rates.

Source: Markit

Decision of the Monetary Policy Committee!

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 02 May 2017 08:47:30 +0000

The Monetary Policy Committee (the Committee) has decided to set the short term interest rates at the following levels:

a) Overnight Interest Rates: Marginal Funding Rate has been kept at 9.25 percent and borrowing rate has been kept at 7.25 percent.
b) One-week repo rate has been kept at 8 percent,
c) Late Liquidity Window Interest Rates (between 4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.): Borrowing rate has been kept at 0 percent, while lending rate has been increased from 11.75 percent to 12.25 percent.

Recently released data indicate a gradual recovery in the economic activity. Domestic demand conditions display a moderate improvement and demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the economic activity is expected to gain further pace in the forthcoming period. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

Cost push pressures and the volatility in food prices in recent months have led to a sharp increase in inflation. Although the recent improvement in the risk appetite contains some of the upside pressures from cost factors, current elevated levels of inflation pose risks on the pricing behavior. Accordingly, the Committee decided to strengthen the monetary tightening in order to contain the deterioration in the inflation outlook.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.

Source: Central Bank of the Turkish Republic (Decision of the Monetary Policy Committee No: 2017-19 – Date: 26 April 2017)

What are the Factors Affecting Inflation in Turkey?

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 02 May 2017 08:22:20 +0000

1. Data for the fourth quarter of 2016 confirmed the conjecture that the third-quarter economic slowdown was transitory. In this period, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.5 percent year-on-year. Excluding the offset work day losses of the third quarter, the fourth quarter was marked by a moderate growth. The TURKSTAT’s upward revisions to the first three quarters of 2016 showed that the level of economic activity was much higher than anticipated. Hence, the economy grew by 2.9 percent in 2016, a rate much lower than past years’ averages.

2. Annual growth was driven by domestic demand in the last quarter of 2016. Private spending was up both annually and quarterly thanks to the demand brought forward by automobile tax adjustments, eased macro prudential measures and better financial conditions. Investments, particularly machinery and equipment investments, were relatively weak in this period. With exports accelerating in the last quarter, net external demand provided considerably higher contribution to quarterly growth and a slightly better contribution to annual growth compared to the first nine months of 2016.

3. The first-quarter data for 2017 hint at diminishing recovery in economic activity in the first quarter. Following a robust increase in January, industrial production contracted in February. Rapid depreciation of the Turkish lira at the start of the quarter, uncertainties led by volatile financial markets and the leap in inflation are projected to dampen consumption and investment spending. Although tax incentives stimulate the demand for houses, furniture and home appliances, the recovery in domestic demand fails to spread across all sectors. Indicators for March and April signal for a stronger economic activity and labor market. In brief, the mild recovery in the underlying trend of economic activity continues, which is enhanced by supportive incentives and measures.

4. Despite a partial recovery in domestic demand, net external demand spurs growth with robust increases in exports of goods that spill over into all sectors. The growing demand from the European Union economies, normalizing relations with neighboring countries, the course of the real exchange rate, and Turkey’s market-shifting flexibility abroad continues to stimulate exports. Increases in exports of goods translate into a decelerated deterioration in the current account deficit and improvement in core current account deficit indicators. In addition to the expected partial recovery in tourism, the robust course of exports of goods is expected to contribute positively to the current account.

5. The worsening trend in the labor market that began in May 2016 came to a halt in January 2017. In this period, non-farm employment recorded an uptick particularly with the contribution from the services sector. Meanwhile, leading indicators, such as new job vacancies, the PMI employment index and the expectations for the number of employees in services and construction for March and April suggest a recovery in the employment outlook. Amid the mild rebound in economic activity and the announced employment incentive packages, the partial improvement in unemployment rates is expected to continue.

6. In sum, the recently released data indicate a gradual recovery in the economic activity. Domestic demand conditions display a moderate improvement and demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the economic activity is expected to gain further pace in the forthcoming period. However, the course of capital flows in line with uncertainties regarding global economic policies, geopolitical developments, the subsided course of the labor market and the lingering volatility in exchange rates may stand out as factors to limit the pace of growth in 2017.

Source: Central Bank of the Turkish Republic

Crop Products Balance Sheets of Turkey: “Vegetables”, 2015-2016

MuhasebeNews — Thu, 06 Apr 2017 15:09:38 +0000

The highest degree of self-sufficiency was realized as 115.3% for carrot
The level of domestic demand compensation by domestic production of total vegetable was realized as 106.8% in the marketing year 2015-2016. While the big share of the total vegetable supply was consumed domestically, only 6.6% was exported.

While the degree of self-sufficiency for carrot, in tuberous and root vegetables group, was the highest value with 115.3%, it is followed by green onion with 102.5% and dry onion with 102.1%.

The degree of self-sufficiency of tomato, raised for its fruit and at the same time has the biggest share in total vegetable production, was realized as 110.8%. It is followed by squash with 110.1% and pepper with 109.2%.

While the degree of self-sufficiency for green bean, in the leguminous vegetables group, was the lowest value with 100.3%, it was 102.2% for green pea and 101.2% for green broad bean.

Degree of self-sufficiency of selected products, 2015-2016
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.