Consumer – Muhasebe News

Annual inflation more than tripled in the EU in 2022

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 14 Mar 2023 07:43:51 +0000

In 2022, EU annual inflation reached the highest level ever measured at 9.2%. Compared with 2021, when the annual value was 2.9%, it more than tripled.

The annual average change in the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) in the EU during the period 2013-2022 was 2.1%. Compared with consumer prices in several of the largest world economies, inflation in Japan was generally lower than in the EU, whereas it was generally higher in the United States and China, except in recent years. Between 2013 and 2022, consumer prices rose by an annual average of 0.8% in Japan, 2.3% in the United States and 1.9% in China.

Compared with 2021, annual inflation also increased in these three economies: the United States hit 8.7% (just below the EU), Japan’s inflation reached 2.5%, while China was the lowest of the four with 2.0%.

Highest increase in 2022 in housing and house expenses

Looking at the latest annual developments in the EU, among the 12 main headings, consumer prices for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels registered the highest increase in 2022, an average of 18.0%. Transport followed, with an average increase of 12.1%, while food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by an average of 11.9%. The other main headings all rose in 2022, between 2.0% and 8.1%, except the price of communications, which fell marginally by 0.1%.

Source: Eurostat
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Consumer confidence in Finland is still low; compared to one year ago, the views were still clearly worse

MuhasebeNews — Wed, 01 Mar 2023 06:15:08 +0000

Views on the economy improved slightly in February compared to January. Compared to one year ago, the views were still clearly worse.
Consumers’ assessments of their own economy at present and expectations concerning one’s own and especially Finland’s economy in 12 months’ time still remained at a very weak level.
Plans to spend money on durable goods remained almost unchanged and very scant. The time was considered very unfavourable for making purchases. Intentions to buy a car and dwelling were lower than usual.
Estimates concerning inflation at the time of the survey rose again to its record level. Expectations concerning inflation in 12 months’ time remained almost unchanged at a lower level.
Consumers’ own financial situation was again considered to be good and the threat of unemployment to be normal.

Consumer confidence in areas of residence and population groups

In February, consumer confidence in the economy was exceptionally strongest in Eastern Finland (CCI -3.1). Confidence was weakest in Northern Finland (-17.8). Among population groups, upper-level salaried employees were most optimistic (-4.7). Unemployed persons had the gloomiest expectations concerning economic development (-17.9) in February. More detailed information is available in the figures and database tables.

Consumers’ own and Finland’s economy

In February, consumers’ views on the economy improved slightly compared to January. Despite this, the assessment of the present situation and expectations concerning one’s own economy and especially Finland’s economy were still very weak. Compared to one year ago in February, the views on the economy were now clearly worse.

Thirty-three per cent of consumers thought in February that their own economy is weaker than one year ago. Only 22 per cent of consumers regarded their own economy stronger at the time of the survey than one year ago. As many as 80 per cent of consumers thought that Finland’s economy is now worse than a year ago, and only five per cent felt that it is better.

In February, 19 per cent of consumers believed that Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming twelve months. Nearly one half, or 45 per cent of consumers, thought that the country’s economy would deteriorate. In all, 26 per cent of consumers believed in February that their own economy would improve and 19 per cent feared it would worsen over the year.

Unemployment and its threat

Consumers’ expectations concerning the development of the general unemployment situation in Finland remained on the long-term average level in February. Only 15 per cent of consumers expected that unemployment would decrease over the next year, while 39 per cent thought that unemployment would increase.

In February, employed consumers (wage and salary earners and self-employed persons) felt that the personal threat of unemployment or temporary lay-off was similar to the long-term average. Six per cent of employed persons reckoned that their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past few months, while 15 per cent thought the risk had grown. Exactly one half, or 50 per cent, of employed persons felt in February that they were not threatened by unemployment or temporary lay-off at all.

Inflation

In February, consumers’ estimates concerning inflation at the time of the survey rose again to its record level. Expectations concerning price changes in 12 months’ time remained almost unchanged at a lower level.

In February, consumers estimated that consumer prices have risen by 8.6 per cent from last year’s February and will go up by 5.2 per cent over the next year. As many as 92 per cent of consumers thought prices had risen much or fairly much over the year, but only 36 per cent expected prices to rise at least at the same rate over the coming months as well.

Financial situation, saving and raising a loan

As in the past months, the time was considered very poor for raising a loan and also for saving in February. Only 10 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for raising a loan and 36 per cent thought the time was favourable for saving. At the same time, intentions to take out a loan were on a very low level. In February, only 13 per cent of consumers were planning to take out a loan within one year.

In February, consumers again considered their own financial situation to be good. Consumers expected their saving possibilities to be on their usual level in the coming months. In February, 58 per cent of consumers had been able to lay aside some money and 74 per cent believed they would be able to do so during the next 12 months.

Spending and intentions to make large purchases

In February, the time was still considered very unfavourable for buying durable goods. Only nine per cent of consumers considered the time favourable for expensive purchases.

In February, consumers still had very scant intentions to spend money on durable goods during the next 12 months. Intentions to purchase subsided particularly compared to one year ago. In February, only eight per cent of consumers planned on increasing and nearly one half, or 47 per cent, on reducing their spending on durable goods over the next 12 months.

Buying a car during the next 12 months was in February considered to a lesser extent than normal in the long-term. The same applied to buying a dwelling and also to renovating one’s home.

In February, 13 per cent of consumers were either definitely or possibly going to buy a car during the next 12 months. Only 11 per cent of consumers considered buying a dwelling or building a house. Fifteen per cent of consumers were planning to spend money on renovating their home during the next 12 months.

Source: Statistics Finland
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Consumer Confidence In Italy Hits 1-Year High

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 28 Feb 2023 06:55:27 +0000

In February 2023, the consumer confidence index improved from 100.9 to 104.0 in Italy. The positive evolution concerned all the index components: the economic climate increased from 107.6 to 114.5, the future one grew from 108.6 to 113.4, the personal one rose from 98.6 to 100.5 and, finally, the current climate bettered from 95.7 to 97.6.

With reference to the business confidence climate, the index (IESI, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator) remained stable at 109.1.

The confidence climate in manufacturing held steady at 102.8. Both expectations on production and assessments on order books improved (the balance of the first variable moved up from 4.6 to 5.2, the one of the second recovered from -8.0 to -7.8), while inventories were considered to have slightly built up (the related balance passed, in fact, from 3.4 to 4.1).

The confidence climate in construction shrunk from 158.8 to 157.2. Among confidence-building variables, the assessments on order books/construction went down, while expectations on employment improved (the related balances passed from 2.5 to -0.4 and from 7.3 to 8.1 respectively).

The market services confidence index worsened from 104.2 to 103.3. Some concerns stemmed both from assessments and expectations on order books (the related balances passed from 8.8 to 7.8 and from 6.8 to 4.8, respectively); conversely, favourable signals came from assessments on business trend (the balance of the variable rose from 8.4 to 8.6).

The retail trade confidence index climbed from 110.6 to 114.6. Strong optimistic hints, in particular, were reported on the future volume of sales and firms overall gave positive assessments also on current business activity (the balances of the variables passed from 12.6 to 22.6 and from 29.6 to 35.2, respectively). However, inventories continued to increase (the related balance, in fact, went up from 2.7 to 6.1).

Source: ISTAT
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Following a 6.3% increase in December, Canada’s CPI rises 5.9% year over year in January

MuhasebeNews — Wed, 22 Feb 2023 07:59:39 +0000

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.9% year over year in January, following a 6.3% increase in December. Prices for cellular services and passenger vehicles contributed to the deceleration in the all-items CPI. However, mortgage interest cost and prices for food continue to rise.

In January, prices rose 4.9% on a year-over-year basis excluding food and energy and 5.4% excluding mortgage interest cost. In both cases, year-over-year price growth slowed compared with December.

The headline CPI grew at a slower pace year over year in January (+5.9%) compared with December (+6.3%) due to a base-year effect. This is because the monthly increase in January 2023 (+0.5%) was smaller than the monthly increase in January 2022 (+0.9%). In January 2022, mounting tensions amid the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine coupled with supply chain disruptions and higher prices for housing put upward pressure on prices.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.5% in January 2023 following a 0.6% decline in December. Higher gasoline prices contributed the most to the month-over-month increase, followed by a rise in mortgage interest cost and meat prices. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3%.

Base-year effects and the headline Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a standard measure of the price of a representative basket of goods and services. The headline consumer inflation is measured as the percentage change between the CPI in the current month (January 2023) and the CPI in a base month or the same calendar month of the previous year (January 2022).

A base-year effect refers to the impact that price movements from 12 months earlier have on the current month’s headline consumer inflation. When a large 1-month upward price change in the base month stops influencing or falls out of the 12-month price movement, this has a downward effect on headline CPI in the current month. Conversely, a large 1-month downward price change in the base month creates upward pressure on the current month’s 12-month figure.

In the first half of 2022, the global economy was significantly affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Canadian consumers experienced a significant increase in prices from January to June 2022. Headline consumer inflation increased from 5.1% in January to 8.1% in June 2022. The broad increase in prices in the early months of 2022, led by energy products, had a downward impact on the year-over-year rate of consumer inflation in January 2023, because higher prices from January 2022 were used as the basis for year-over-year comparison.

Price increases observed in the first half of 2022 will continue to fall out of the 12-month price movement. While inflation has slowed in recent months, prices remain elevated. Users should consider the impact of base-year effects when interpreting the 12-month price movement.

Consumers pay more at the pump in January compared with December

Gasoline prices contributed the most to the month-over-month increase in the all-items CPI, rising 4.7% in January. The price increase was related to refinery closures in the southwestern United States following winter storm Elliot.

On a year-over-year basis, prices for gasoline rose 2.9% in January, decelerating slightly from a 3.0% increase in December.

Consumers pay less for cellular services

Cellular service prices fell 7.9% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.5% increase in December. Some Boxing Day sales remained available into January, leading to a decline when compared with the same month a year earlier.

Year-over-year passenger vehicle prices increase at a slower rate

Year over year, consumers paid 6.2% more for passenger vehicles in January following a 7.2% increase in December. This slowdown in price growth is partly attributable to a base-year effect, caused by a 0.9% month-over-month increase in January 2022, when prices were impacted by ongoing supply chain constraints. In comparison, vehicle prices declined 0.1% month over month in January 2023. Lower availability of new model-year vehicles in January 2023 compared with January 2022 may also be contributing to the year-over-year deceleration.

Shelter prices decelerate despite continued upward pressure from mortgage interest cost

On a year-over-year basis, shelter prices increased at a slower rate, rising 6.6% in January after a 7.0% increase in December. Growth in other owned accommodation expenses (+1.1%) and homeowners’ replacement cost (+4.3%) continued to decelerate amid the ongoing cooling of the housing market.

At the same time, the mortgage interest cost index continued to rise at a faster year-over-year pace amid the higher interest rate environment, rising 21.2% in January, the largest increase since September 1982, following an 18.0% increase in December.

Food prices rise at a faster pace year over year

Food prices, which include both groceries and food from restaurants, rose at a slightly faster pace year over year in January (+10.4%) than in December (+10.1%).

Grocery price acceleration in January was driven in part by year-over-year growth in meat prices (+7.3%), resulting from the largest month-over-month increase since June 2004. Fresh or frozen chicken prices were a notable contributor to the gain, rising 9.0% in January compared with December, the largest monthly increase since September 1986. Among other factors, chicken prices rose amid stronger seasonal demand as well as ongoing supply constraints, elevated input costs and issues related to avian influenza. Additional acceleration was seen in year-over-year price increases for bakery products (+15.5%), dairy products (+12.4%) and fresh vegetables (+14.7%).

Food purchased from restaurants also rose at a faster pace, rising 8.2% in January following a 7.7% increase in December. The gain was the result of higher prices for fast food and takeout.

Source: Statistics Canada
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Inflation in Spain Increases to 5.9% Amid Higher Food Prices

MuhasebeNews — Thu, 16 Feb 2023 07:26:13 +0000

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate in Spain decreased, for the third consecutive month, to 8.4% in January 2023 (9.6% in December 2022). The annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products, was 7.0% (7.3% in the previous month). The main contribution to the deceleration of the CPI was given by the index for energy products, where the respective annual rate of change is estimated to have decreased, also for the third consecutive month, to 7.1% (20.8% in December), mainly due to the decrease in prices of electricity. On the opposite side, the estimated rate for unprocessed food increased to 18.5% (17.6% in the previous month).

The CPI monthly rate was -0.8% (-0.3% in December 2022 and 0.3% in January 2022), while the CPI 12-month average rate was 8.2% (7.8% in the previous month).

In January 2023, the Portuguese Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) annual rate was 8.6% (9.8% in the previous month). This rate is 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) above the figure estimated by Eurostat for the Euro area (in December, this difference was 0.6 p.p.). Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, the Portuguese HICP decreased to 7.8% in January (8.0% in December), above the corresponding rate for the Euro area (estimated at 7.0%).

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatística INE
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Swiss Consumer Price Inflation Exceeds Expectations; increased by 0.6% in January 2023

MuhasebeNews — Wed, 15 Feb 2023 09:09:32 +0000

The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6% in January 2023 compared with the previous month, reaching 105.0 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +3.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

The 0.6% increase compared with the previous month is due to several factors including rising prices for electricity and gas. Hotel accommodation also recorded a price increase, as did bread and coffee. In contrast, prices for air transport and petroleum products decreased as well as for clothing and footwear, the latter due to seasonal sales.

Source: Federal Statistical Office
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

OECD inflation falls further to 9.4% in December 2022

MuhasebeNews — Tue, 14 Feb 2023 07:16:37 +0000

Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed further to 9.4% in December 2022, down from its October 2022 peak (10.8%) and its lowest level since April 2022 (Figures 1 and 3). Declines in inflation between November and December were recorded in 25 of 38 OECD countries. Double-digit inflation was recorded in 15 OECD countries in December 2022, with the highest inflation rates recorded in Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Türkiye (all above 20%). OECD inflation in 2022 was more than double its 2021 level (9.6% compared with 4.0%), reaching its highest annual average rate since 1988.

After the peak observed in June 2022, energy inflation continued to fall sharply in most OECD countries, down from 23.8% in November to 18.4% in December, hitting its lowest level since August 2021. Food inflation and inflation excluding food and energy also decreased, to 15.6% and 7.2 % respectively, partially driven by pronounced falls in Türkiye.

In December, inflation declined in all G7 countries except Japan. The largest decrease was observed in Germany, reflecting a one-off subsidy on gas bills. Food and energy inflation continued to be the main contributors to headline inflation in France, Germany, Italy and Japan, while inflation excluding food and energy was the main driver in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States (Figure 2).

In the euro area, year-on-year inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to 9.2% in December, from 10.1% in November. Energy inflation continued to fall, but inflation excluding food and energy kept increasing in December. Eurostat’s flash estimate for January 2023 points to a further decrease in year-on-year inflation in the euro area, to 8.5%, with energy inflation falling significantly and inflation excluding food and energy remaining stable.

In the G20, year-on-year inflation fell to 8.5% in December, from 9.0% in November. Outside the OECD, year-on-year inflation decreased in Brazil and South Africa, but increased in Argentina, China, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

Source: OECD
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

Consumer confidence index realized as 58.3 in Turkey

MuhasebeNews — Fri, 23 Aug 2019 10:44:56 +0000

Consumer Confidence Index, August 2019

Consumer confidence index realized as 58.3Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index calculated from the results of the consumer tendency survey carried out in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey increased by 3.1% compared to the previous month. The index became 58.3 in August while it was 56.5 in July.

Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index, August 2019

Financial situation expectation index realized as 77.8

The financial situation expectation of household index in the next 12 months period which was 77 in July increased by 1.1% and became 77.8 in August.

General economic situation expectation index became 74.3

The general economic situation expectation index (next 12 months period) which was 73.4 in July increased by 1.2% and became 74.3 in August.

Number of people unemployed expectation index became 58.3

The number of people unemployed expectation index (next 12 months period) which was 55.6 in July increased by 4.8% and became 58.3 in August.

Probability of saving index realized as 22.7

The probability of saving index (next 12 months period) which was 20 in July increased by 13.1% and became 22.7 in August.

Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index, sub-indices and
rate of changes, August 2019

The next release on this subject will be on September 20, 2019.

EXPLANATIONS

In monthly consumer tendency survey, consumers’ assessments and expectations on financial standing and general economic situation, also their expenditure and saving tendencies are measured.

The consumer confidence index calculated from the survey results is evaluated within the range of 0-200. It indicates an optimistic outlook when the index is above 100, but it indicates a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100.

Source: TÜİK
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

Consumer Price Index, June 2019

MuhasebeNews — Wed, 03 Jul 2019 11:08:21 +0000

Consumer Price Index, June 2019

Consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.03%A rise in general index was realized in CPI (2003=100) on the previous month by 0.03%, on December of the previous year by 5.01%, on same month of the previous year by 15.72% and on the twelve months moving averages basis by 19.88% in June 2019.

The highest monthly increase was 2.65% in hotels, cafes and restaurants

In June 2019, the indices rose for miscellaneous goods and services 1.86%, for education 1.50%, for health and furnishing and household equipment 0.57%.

The highest monthly decrease was 1.65% in food and non-alcoholic beverages

In June 2019, the indices declined for clothing and footwear 1.57% and for recreation and culture 0.04%.

The highest annual increase was 26.88% in miscellaneous goods and services

Furnishing and household equipment with 22.51%, hotels, cafes and restaurants with 20.84%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 19.24% and food and non-alcoholic beverages with 19.20% were the other main groups where high annual increases realized.

The indicator for CPI having specified coverage (B) increased by 1.19%

A rise in CPI excluding unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold was realized in CPI (2003=100) on the previous month by 1.19%, on December of the previous year by 4.59%, on same month of the previous year by 16.28% and on the twelve months moving averages basis by 18.89% in June 2019.

In June 2019 within average prices of 418 items in the index, average prices of 51 items remained unchanged while average prices of 264 items increased and average prices of 103 items decreased.

Consumer price index, June 2019
[2003=100]

The next release on this subject will be on August 05, 2019.

Source: tüik
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

Consumer Confidence Index, June 2019

MuhasebeNews — Thu, 20 Jun 2019 14:13:29 +0000

Consumer Confidence Index, June 2019

Consumer confidence index realized as 57.6Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index calculated from the results of the consumer tendency survey carried out in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey increased by 4.3% compared to the previous month. The index became 57.6 in June while it was 55.3 in May.

Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index, June 2019

Financial situation expectation index realized as 78.3

The financial situation expectation of household index in the next 12 months period which was 73.9 in May increased by 5.9% and became 78.3 in June.

General economic situation expectation index became 73.9

The general economic situation expectation index (next 12 months period) which was 70.1 in May increased by 5.4% and became 73.9 in June.

Number of people unemployed expectation index remained same

The number of people unemployed expectation index (next 12 months period) remained at the same level in June as 56.3.

Probability of saving index realized as 22

The probability of saving index (next 12 months period) which was 20.8 in May increased by 6.1% and became 22 in June.

Seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index, sub-indices and rate of
changes, June 2019

The next release on this subject will be on July 23, 2019.

EXPLANATIONS

In monthly consumer tendency survey, consumers’ assessments and expectations on financial standing and general economic situation, also their expenditure and saving tendencies are measured.