Although recently released data point to a stronger economic activity than anticipated, recession concerns in developed economies as a result of geopolitical risks and interest rate hikes continue, and conditions threatening financial stability have emerged. While the negative consequences of supply constraints in some sectors, particularly basic food, have been alleviated by the strategic solutions facilitated by Türkiye, the high level in producer and consumer inflation continues on an international scale. The effects of high global inflation on inflation expectations and international financial markets are closely monitored. While the divergence in monetary policy steps and communications of central banks in advanced economies continue due to their diverse economic outlook, coordinated steps are taken that prioritize financial stability through swap agreements and new liquidity facilities. Financial markets have been adjusting their expectations that the central banks would end the rate hike cycles in the near term.

Before the disaster of the century, leading indicators have been pointing to a stronger domestic demand compared to foreign demand as well as an increase in the growth trend in the first quarter of 2023. The impact of the earthquake on production, consumption, employment and expectations is being extensively evaluated. While the earthquake is expected to affect economic activity in the near term, it is anticipated that it will not have a permanent impact on performance of the Turkish economy in the medium term. While share of sustainable components of economic growth remains high, the stronger-than-expected contribution of tourism revenues to the current account balance continues throughout the year. On the other hand, domestic consumption demand, high level of energy prices and the weak economic activity in main trade partners keep the risks on current account balance alive. Sustainable current account balance is important for price stability. The rate of credit growth and allocation of funds for real economic activity purposes are closely monitored. As announced in the 2023 Monetary Policy and Liraization Strategy document, the Committee will continue to decisively use the tools supporting the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism and the entire policy toolset, particularly funding channels, will be aligned with liraization targets. The Committee will prioritize the creation of supportive financial conditions in order to minimize the effects of the disaster and support the necessary recovery.

While level and underlying trend of inflation have been improved with the support of the implemented integrated policy approach, the effect of earthquake-driven supply-demand imbalances on inflation is closely monitored. It has become even more important to keep financial conditions supportive to preserve the growth momentum in industrial production and the positive trend in employment after the earthquake. Accordingly, the Committee has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged. The Committee assessed that the current monetary policy stance is adequate to support the necessary recovery in the aftermath of the earthquake by maintaining price stability and financial stability. The effects of the earthquake in the first half of 2023 will be closely monitored.

The CBRT will continue to use all available instruments decisively until strong indicators point to a permanent fall in inflation and the medium-term 5 percent target is achieved in pursuit of the primary objective of price stability. The CBRT will implement Liraization Strategy in order to create an institutional basis for permanent and sustainable price stability. Stability in the general price level will foster macroeconomic stability and financial stability through the fall in country risk premium, continuation of the reversal in currency substitution and the upward trend in foreign exchange reserves, and durable decline in financing costs. This would create a viable foundation for investment, production and employment to continue growing in a healthy and sustainable way.

Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye
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To be effective from 1 April 2020, the monthly maximum contractual interest rate for credit card borrowings will be 1.25% for the Turkish lira and 1.00% for foreign exchange transactions, whereas the monthly maximum overdue interest rate will be 1.55% for the Turkish lira and 1.30 % for foreign exchange transactions.

Maximum interest rates for credit cards will no more be announced for three-month periods, but will remain in effect until the introduction of any change.

The CBRT advises credit card holders with short-term credit needs to seek a consumer loan rather than borrowing on personal credit cards, by taking into account factors such as pricing and maturity.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Announcements/Press+Releases/2020/ANO2020-20
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

• Official Reserve Assets recorded USD 107.7 billion indicating 5.1 percent increase compared to the previous month. As regards to sub-items, foreign currency reserves increased by 3.2 percent to USD 75.8 billion, while gold reserves increased by 10.5 percent to USD 30.4 billion.
• Short term predetermined net drains of the Central Government and the CBRT (foreign currency loans, securities, FX deposit liabilities) increased by 6.4 percent to USD 18.1 billion on net basis, of which USD 13.2 billion in principal repayments and USD 4.9 billion in interest repayments. Additionally, outstanding FX and gold liabilities arising from the CBRT’s financial derivative activities with resident and non-resident banks indicated USD 26.9 billion, of which USD 19.9 billion is due in one month.
• Contingent short-term net drains on foreign currency consists of “collateral guarantees on debt due within one year” and “other contingent liabilities (“Banking Sector’s Required Reserves in Blocked Accounts in Foreign Currency and Gold” and “Letters of Credit” items in the CBRT’s balance sheet). These liabilities increased by 2.3 percent to USD 36.7 billion compared to the previous month.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/statistics/balance+of+payments+and+related+statistics/international+reserves-foreign+currency+liquidity
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

Balance of Payments Developments – January 2020

Current Account

• The current account deficit recorded USD 1,804 million indicating an increase of USD 1,528 million compared to January of the previous year, bringing the 12-month rolling surplus to USD 6,494 million.
• The monthly development in the current account is mainly attributable to USD 1,994 million increase in the goods deficit recording net outflow of USD 3,245 million.
• Gold and energy excluded current account indicated USD 3,220 million surplus, which was observed as USD 3,409 million surplus in the same month of the previous year.
• The net inflows at the services item increased by USD 78 million and realized as USD 1,586 million.
• Travel item under services recorded a net inflow of USD 1,100 million, increasing by USD 112 million compared to the same month of the previous year.
• Investment income under primary income item indicated a net outflow of USD 223 million, decreasing by USD 310 million compared to the same period the previous year.
• Secondary income recorded net inflow of USD 195 million increasing by USD 95 million compared to the same month of the previous year.

Financial Account

• Direct investment recorded a net inflow USD 765 million, decreasing by USD 26 million compared to the same month of the previous year.
• Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow of USD 1,222 million. As regards to sub-items through liabilities, both non-residents’ equity securities and government domestic debt securities transactions recorded USD 333 million and USD 498 million of net sales, respectively.
• Regarding the bond issues in international capital markets, banks realized net borrowing of USD 234 million.
• Under other investment, banks’ currency and deposits within their foreign correspondent banks and nonresident banks’ deposits held within domestic banks increased by USD 2,098 million and USD 2,193 million respectively, on net basis.
• Regarding the loans provided from abroad, banks and other sectors realized net repayments of USD 1,503 million and USD 219 million respectively, while General Government realized net borrowing of USD 4 million.
• Official reserves recorded net outflow of USD 2,934 million.

Revisions in Balance of Payments Statistics for 2013-2019

In line with the “Future Revisions” announced on March 5, 2020;

• Services item including “International Trade in Services Statistics” (ITSS) initiated to release by Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) has been revised based on administrative records of the Revenue Administration for the period of 2013-2015 and year-2019, and on the results of the ITSS for the period of 2016-2018.

• Foreign trade data for 2013-2019 have been revised in line with of Foreign Trade Statistics disseminated by Turkstat based on general trade system. Trade Credit and Advances item under Financial Account has also been revised due to the updates in foreign trade data.

As a result of abovementioned revisions;

• Services item increased by USD 9.8 billion in 2013, USD 7.7 billion in 2014, USD 5.4 billion in 2015, USD 4.9 billion in 2016, USD 6.1 billion in 2017, USD 5.3 billion in 2018 and USD 4.7 billion in 2019.

• Current account deficit decreased by USD 8.4 billion in 2013, USD 6.1 billion in 2014, USD 5.0 billion in 2015, USD 4.7 billion in 2016, USD 6.0 billion in 2017, USD 7.5 billion in 2018 and current account surplus increased by USD 6.3 billion in 2019.

• Net errors and omissions decreased by USD 10.5 billion in 2013, USD 5.3 billion in 2014, USD 3.4 billion in 2015, USD 4.3 billion in 2016, USD 6.6 billion in 2017, USD 10.6 billion in 2018 and USD 7.4 billion in 2019.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/statistics/balance+of+payments+and+related+statistics/balance+of+payments+statisticss
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

According to the news published by Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, in January, consumer prices rose by 1.35%, while annual inflation was up by 0.31 points to 12.15%. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in the B and C indices rose by 0.17 and 0.07 points to 10.93% and 9.88%, respectively.

Across subcategories, the contribution of energy, gold and services groups to annual consumer inflation increased month-on-month by 0.66, 0.06, 0.05 points, respectively, while that of food, core goods and alcohol-tobacco groups decreased by 0.34, 0.07 and 0.05 points, respectively.

Three-month averages of seasonally adjusted core inflation indicators suggest a somewhat rise in the trend of the B and C indices. In this period, the trend of the services group posted an uptick, whereas that of the core goods group decreased amid the VAT reduction in furniture products. The upward trend of the B index was also triggered by developments in processed food prices.

In January, services prices increased by 2.00% and annual services inflation inched down to 12.20%. In this period, annual inflation declined in rents, transport services and communication but crept up in restaurants-hotels and remained relatively flat in other services. Monthly price developments reveal that an upsurge in prices was seen in items of the other services group that are inclined to backward-indexation, reflect the exchange rate effect, and the prices of which are set according to the re-valuation rate. This period was especially marked by price developments in subcategories such as health, maintenance and repair, and education. In the restaurants-hotels group, prices increased both in accommodation and catering services. Showing backward-indexation behavior, the rent group posted a monthly increase of 1.14%, with a stronger trend than past months.

Annual core goods inflation decreased by 0.13 points to 7.35% in January. In this period, annual inflation dropped in durable goods, rose in clothing and durable goods and remained flat in other core goods. The VAT reduction in furniture products (to 8% from 18%) was largely manifest in prices, pulling down the prices of durable goods by 0.94%. Meanwhile, the seasonal sale in the clothing and footwear group proved more limited compared to the previous year.

Energy prices rose by 1.11% in January. This rise was mainly due to the price hike of 5.97% in municipal water tariffs. Notwithstanding the fall in international oil prices, fuel prices increased by 0.55% due to exchange rate developments. Annual energy inflation rose by 6.16 points to 17.14% due to the low base effect led by the reduced prices in electricity, natural gas and municipal water in the same period of the previous year.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/69673969-4337-4dfc-8780-90bde7aff242/mpricejanuary20.pdf?MOD=AJPERES
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

According to the news published by Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, official Reserve Assets recorded USD 102.5 billion indicating 2.9 percent decrease compared to the previous month. As regards to sub-items, foreign currency reserves decreased by 4.7 percent to USD 73.5 billion, while gold reserves increased by 2.4 percent to USD 27.5 billion.

Short term predetermined net drains of the Central Government and the CBRT (foreign currency loans, securities, FX deposit liabilities) increased by 6.4 percent to USD 17.1 billion on net basis, of which USD 12.3 billion in principal repayments and USD 4.8 billion in interest repayments. Additionally, outstanding FX and gold liabilities arising from the CBRT’s financial derivative activities with resident and non-resident banks indicated USD 19.8 billion, of which USD 10.8 billion is due in one month.

Contingent short-term net drains on foreign currency consists of “collateral guarantees on debt due within one year” and “other contingent liabilities (“Banking Sector’s Required Reserves in Blocked Accounts in Foreign Currency and Gold” and “Letters of Credit” items in the CBRT’s balance sheet). These liabilities increased by 3.8 percent to USD 35.9 billion compared to the previous month.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/statistics/balance+of+payments+and+related+statistics/international+reserves-foreign+currency+liquidity
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

According to the news published by Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, the Monetary Policy Committee (the Committee) has decided to reduce the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) from 11.25 percent to 10.75 percent.

Recent data indicate that recovery in economic activity continues. Sectoral diffusion of economic activity continues to improve. Despite signs of recovery, investment and employment remain weak. While favorable effects of improved competitiveness prevail, weakening global economic outlook tempers external demand. As the contribution of net exports to economic growth declines, economic recovery is expected to be sustained with the help of the ongoing disinflation process and improvement in financial conditions. Nevertheless, developments in credit growth and its composition are closely monitored for their impact on external balance and inflation. Going forward, sustaining a moderate course in current account balance, which has recently recorded significant improvement, is considered as a crucial element of the macroeconomic policy mix.

Weakness in global economic activity and low levels of global inflation strengthen expectations regarding the continuation of expansionary monetary policies in advanced economies. On the other hand, recently elevated uncertainties regarding global economic outlook lead to volatility in the demand for emerging market assets and the risk appetite. Rising protectionism, uncertainty regarding global economic policies, geopolitical developments and the recent outbreak of an epidemic disease are closely monitored for their impact on capital flows, international trade and commodity prices.

Developments in inflation expectations, domestic demand conditions and producer prices have contributed to a mild trend in core inflation indicators. The improvement in macroeconomic indicators, inflation in particular, supports the fall in country risk premium and helps contain cost pressures. The course of inflation is considered to be broadly in line with the year-end inflation projection. Accordingly, considering all factors affecting the inflation outlook, the Committee decided to make a more measured cut in the policy rate. At this point, the current monetary policy stance remains consistent with the projected disinflation path.

The Committee assesses that maintaining a sustained disinflation process is a key factor for achieving lower sovereign risk, lower long-term interest rates, and stronger economic recovery. Keeping the disinflation process in track with the targeted path requires the continuation of a cautious monetary stance. In this respect, monetary stance will be determined by considering the indicators of the underlying inflation trend to ensure the continuation of the disinflation process. The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability and financial stability objectives.

Kaynak: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Announcements/Press+Releases/2020/ANO2020-08
Yasal Uyarı: Bu içerikte yer alan bilgi, görsel, tablolar, açıklama, yorum, analiz ve bir bütün olarak içeriğin tamamı sadece genel bilgilendirme amacıyla verilmiştir. Kişi veya kuruma özel profesyonel bir bilgilendirme ve yönlendirmede bulunma amacı güdülmemiştir. Konu ile benzerlik gösterse de her işletmenin kendi özel şartları nedeniyle farklı durumları olabilir. Bu nedenle, bu yazıda belirtilen içerikte yola çıkarak işletmenizi etkileyecek herhangi bir karar alıp uygulamaya geçmeden önce, uzmanına danışmanız menfaatiniz gereğidir. Muhasebenews veya ilişkili olduğu kişi veya kurumlardan hiç biri, bu belgede yer alan bilgi, tablo, görsel, görüş ve diğer türdeki tüm içeriklerin özel veya resmi, gerçek veya tüzel kişi, kurum ve organizasyonlar tarafından kullanılması sonucunda ortaya çıkabilecek zarar veya ziyandan sorumlu değildir.

According to the news published by Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, fees that banks can charge their commercial clients for products and services, offered under four categories as “Commercial Loans”, “Foreign Trade”, “Cash Management” and “Payment Systems”, have been limited to 51 items.

Pursuant to the Council of Ministers Decision No. 2006/11188, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey issued the “Communiqué No. 2006/1 on the Deposit and Loan Rates, the Profit and Loss Participation Rates for Participation Accounts, and Other Non-Interest Benefits to be Received via Credit Transactions”. Article 4 of this Communiqué stipulates that the characteristics and limits of other non-interest benefits to be received and charges to be collected shall be determined freely. However, it was observed over time that banks collect numerous fees, commissions and charges of the same characteristic under different names, and the collected amounts are far from being comparable and might lead to overcharging. Consequently, client complaints have increased significantly.

Therefore, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) issued the “Regulation on Procedures and Principles Regarding the Fees to be Charged on Financial Consumers” on 3 October 2014, which simplified the fees that can be charged on financial consumers, and ensured transparency in charges. However, problems persisted regarding the charges imposed on commercial clients.

Following comprehensive evaluations, it has been decided to make a regulation to render the fees that can be collected more transparent, lucid and comparable by determining the types and characteristics, maximum amounts or rates of fees that banks can charge their commercial clients for products and services as well as the standards thereof. To this end, the “Communiqué No. 2020/4 on Procedures and Principles Regarding the Fees That Banks Can Charge Their Commercial Clients” has been published.

In this Communiqué,

• Fees that banks can charge their commercial clients for products and services, offered under the four categories as “Commercial Loans”, “Foreign Trade”, “Cash Management” and “Payment Systems”, have been limited to 51 items,
• Quantitative or qualitative restrictions have been introduced to some fee items,
• Obligation to inform has been imposed on banks for transparency purposes.

Provisions in the Communiqué shall be effective as of 1 March 2020. These provisions shall also apply to transactions to be conducted after the effective date under the contracts made before this date.

The amounts and rates limited in the Communiqué are upper limits, and the fees and rates to be applied will certainly be determined by competitive market conditions as well as by the business relations between banks and commercial clients.

Moreover, it has been decided to repeal the Communiqué No. 2006/1 on 1 March 2020 and to replace it with the “Communiqué No. 2020/3 on the Deposit and Loan Rates and the Profit and Loss Participation Rates for Participation Accounts”, to be effective 1 March 2020. With the Communiqué No. 2020/3, the provisions of the repealed Communiqué excluding those on other non-interest benefits to be received are broadly preserved, and provisions are changed regarding the profit and loss participation rates to be applied in participation accounts, taking into account the BRSA regulations and international interest-free finance principles and guidelines.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Announcements/Press+Releases/2020/ANO2020-07
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

According to the news published by Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, regarding the table of Foreign Exchange Assets and Liabilities of Non-Financial Companies as of November 2019, assets increased by USD 1 million while liabilities decreased by USD 1,502 million, compared to October 2019. Accordingly, Net Foreign Exchange Deficit recorded USD 175,947 million indicating a decrease of USD 1,503 million compared to October 2019.

On the asset side; deposits held by domestic banks decreased by USD 1,212 million, direct investments abroad and export receivables increased by USD 216 million and USD 947 million respectively, indicating an increase of USD 1 million in assets. On the liability side; domestic loans decreased by USD 2,350, while external loans (excluding trade credits) and import payables increased by USD 7 million and USD 841 million respectively compared to October 2019. Accordingly, liabilities recorded a decrease of USD 1,502 million.

In November 2019, short-term domestic loans increased by USD 149 million, while long-term domestic loans decreased by USD 2,499 million compared to October 2019. Short-term external loans increased by USD 741 million, while long-term external loans increased by USD 107 million.

In November 2019, short-term assets recorded USD 103,993 million while short-term liabilities recorded USD 94,446 million. Accordingly, Short-Term Foreign Exchange Surplus recorded USD 9,547 million indicating a decrease of USD 1,105 million compared to October 2019. The share of the short-term liabilities in total liabilities is 32 percent.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/statistics/monetary+and+financial+statistics/fx+assets+and+liabilities+of+nonfin+companies
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

According to the news published by the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, the broad money supply M3 grew annually by 28.2% in December 2019, following the 25.7-percent yearon-year growth in November 2019. The annual growth rate of M1, the narrowest measure of money supply, increased from 38.1% in November to 41.6% in December 2019.

The annual rate of increase in loans granted by the monetary sector to households is 15.6% in December 2019. Meanwhile, the loans extended to non-financial corporations increased 5.9% in November 2019 compared to previous year, while it increased year on year 8.7% in December 2019.

An analysis of the contribution of broad money components to the annual growth in money supply reveals that the largest contribution came from time deposits, followed by demand deposits. The increase in time deposits contributed 19% to the 28.2% annual growth in the broad money M3 in December 2019 while demand deposits added 6.4%. Other components had a limited contribution to the growth.

The growth in M3 is reflected in counterparts as an increase in claims on the private sector, the general government, non-bank financial institutions and net foreign assets by 28.9%, 5%, 0.9% and 2.1% respectively. On the other hand, other items (net) had a reducing effect by 8.7%.

Source: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/533c4d4d-be2b-4086-b0c1-74d33a22d848/Monetary+Developments.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-533c4d4d-be2b-4086-b0c1-74d33a22d848-m.XnmDT
Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.